Stats behind Mog Bonanza

I’m pretty sure everyone had it figured it out by now. 1 out of every 100,000 tickets will probably win the prize… well statistically. But I kinda was curious at other things.. such as if the system would bring down the Dusk Gloves +1 or… if it would create inflation so let me break it down into sections.

2008, Mog Bonanza, FFXI

Mog Bonanza’s +1 Dusk Gloves Calc.

Dusk Gloves +1

We all know that is pretty rare. 1/100 gets HQed due to a Lv99 craft. Considering behe hides don’t drop like water. So after making some assumptions (well educated guess) on some numbers, here’s what I have (click the right for full calculations).

Although its no where near a 95% confidence level due to a large variable etc, but lets be very optimistic. 10 pairs of +1 Dusk Gloves.(Calculation says roughly 2.5 pairs). But the fact that Dusk Gloves +1 are still the most wanted item will not change its price much. That item is pretty inelastic. At least that’s what SohJai says :D

Remember, I made a few assumptions. Those stats are not completely accurate. Its purely for information purposes only.

100,000,000m Gil

If the winner picks 100m, does it inflate? No :)

1000g per ticket, 1 out of 100,000 will win, which works out that 100m will be drained from the economy from people buying tickets!

First Prize of 100m = 1000g x 100,000 people buying tickets.

The only inflation part is probably the 2nd – 4th rank gil prizes. Say you win a Rank 2, some people might pick the AF2, some might get 10m. I’d personally would get the AF2 Hat for BLM and peace out… just think about the time savings for not going to dynamis and waiting for a drop… but some who do dynamis and is high in points might just take 10m. That’s the gil that inflates the economy

Remember, out of 100,000, 9 person out of 100,000 people will win the 2nd prize, and if they all pick gil, that is another 90m into the economy. The first prize pays for itself, but not the 2nd. BUT! Remember, I’m assuming they all get gils, and if I got it, I’m not picking gil :D

So 3rd won’t pay for itself too, if all of those 90 people pick gils, that’s another 90m into the economy :3 etc etc…

You just have to hope people don’t pick gil :D

The Conspiracy

Mog Bonanza runs from May 15 – May 30
Reveals at June 30
Prizes at July 1-3

I have this little thing going at the back of my head. Why does it take so long to sort prizes? Well one thing is… they probably don’t want to mess up :O since they are actually creating data to a specific character. But on the other hand, I was thinking… if they are actually using this opportunity to catch RMT? Or even use all that time to calculate which number gives out the least reward?

Remember, they aren’t doing the lottery infront of players. They are simply “announcing” the numbers. So are they PICKING a specific number? :). I don’t know myself, and its hard to say :3

I wouldn’t think SE would put their brand name to crap by pulling something like this. What if it leaks? I don’t think it will happen but who knows :D

Anyway, hope you enjoyed the stats and the discussion.

PS: So busy with life, no time for posting :<

5 Responses to “Stats behind Mog Bonanza”

  1. Jackalman says:

    1 quick correction — 3rd prize would be 90 winners, not 99 (out of the 100 combinations of #s that could win 3rd prize, 1 will be 1st prize and 9 will be 2nd prize, leaving 90 for 3rd prize). Still, you’re right about the inflation part. 1st prize is a wash, 2nd prize adds 90M, 3rd prize adds 90M, and 4th prize also adds 90M, so every 100M spent yields a total of 370M, which is a 270M gain to the economy. Of course, those statistics are very basic, since not every number will be picked equally, but it still gives us a basis to go on.

  2. Maiev says:

    Thanks for pointing the error out :)
    Well also, that’s also assuming they all pick gil.. so lets hope they don’t pick gil :D

  3. Feba says:

    For a start, the period between the announcement of the winning number and the giving out of the prizes is only a few days. Prizes aren’t “sorted” as they are selected by the winners personally when (between July 2 and July 31) they want. I’d imagine prizes are handed out in a similar way to collecting an item reward from an NPC (like buying items with IS or CP). Trading the marble and then choosing the prize from a list, in which case there would be no need to “create data” on specific accounts; it’s quite logical… furthermore square enix have specifically said: (and this was written in the article you pasted some of your information from)

    * The winning number will be randomly determined in a strictly supervised process.

    * Employees of Square Enix, Square Enix Inc. and Square Enix Ltd. and their relatives are forbidden from participating in the Mog Bonanza.

    Note especially the first point. The idea that Square Enix would ‘fix’ this lottery is ridiculous, they have absolutely no need to and no gain from doing so in the first place.

  4. Sahki says:

    I don’t believe that SE is “PICKING” a specific number. If they did, like you said, wouldn’t be very ethical. So they are probably using a simple number generator that will randomly pick the winning number. Hopefully, they’ll chose the same number across all servers. That way if the number that they choose for each individual server is leaked on the internet, which it will be (lolKilling Ifrit), then said person who has the winning number for lets say, Cerberus, but he/she is on Ragnarok won’t switch servers to claim the prize and then move back to his server when it’s all said and done. Thanks for posting this by the way. Interesting read.

    ~Sahki, Cerberus


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